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 consumption prediction


Cloud Computing Energy Consumption Prediction Based on Kernel Extreme Learning Machine Algorithm Improved by Vector Weighted Average Algorithm

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the rapid expansion of cloud computing infrastructure, energy consumption has become a critical challenge, driving the need for accurate and efficient prediction models. This study proposes a novel Vector Weighted Average Kernel Extreme Learning Machine (VWAA-KELM) model to enhance energy consumption prediction in cloud computing environments. By integrating a vector weighted average algorithm (VWAA) with kernel extreme learning machine (KELM), the proposed model dynamically adjusts feature weights and optimizes kernel functions, significantly improving prediction accuracy and generalization. Experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of VWAA-KELM: 94.7% of test set prediction errors fall within [0, 50] units, with only three cases exceeding 100 units, indicating strong stability. The model achieves a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.987 in the training set (RMSE = 28.108, RPD = 8.872) and maintains excellent generalization with R2 = 0.973 in the test set (RMSE = 43.227, RPD = 6.202). Visual analysis confirms that predicted values closely align with actual energy consumption trends, avoiding overfitting while capturing nonlinear dependencies. A key innovation of this study is the introduction of adaptive feature weighting, allowing the model to dynamically assign importance to different input parameters, thereby enhancing high-dimensional data processing. This advancement provides a scalable and efficient approach for optimizing cloud data center energy consumption. Beyond cloud computing, the proposed hybrid framework has broader applications in Internet of Things (IoT) and edge computing, supporting real-time energy management and intelligent resource allocation.


Distributed Multi-Head Learning Systems for Power Consumption Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As more and more automatic vehicles, power consumption prediction becomes a vital issue for task scheduling and energy management. Most research focuses on automatic vehicles in transportation, but few focus on automatic ground vehicles (AGVs) in smart factories, which face complex environments and generate large amounts of data. There is an inevitable trade-off between feature diversity and interference. In this paper, we propose Distributed Multi-Head learning (DMH) systems for power consumption prediction in smart factories. Multi-head learning mechanisms are proposed in DMH to reduce noise interference and improve accuracy. Additionally, DMH systems are designed as distributed and split learning, reducing the client-to-server transmission cost, sharing knowledge without sharing local data and models, and enhancing the privacy and security levels. Experimental results show that the proposed DMH systems rank in the top-2 on most datasets and scenarios. DMH-E system reduces the error of the state-of-the-art systems by 14.5% to 24.0%. Effectiveness studies demonstrate the effectiveness of Pearson correlation-based feature engineering, and feature grouping with the proposed multi-head learning further enhances prediction performance.


TRIZ Method for Urban Building Energy Optimization: GWO-SARIMA-LSTM Forecasting model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the advancement of global climate change and sustainable development goals, urban building energy consumption optimization and carbon emission reduction have become the focus of research. Traditional energy consumption prediction methods often lack accuracy and adaptability due to their inability to fully consider complex energy consumption patterns, especially in dealing with seasonal fluctuations and dynamic changes. This study proposes a hybrid deep learning model that combines TRIZ innovation theory with GWO, SARIMA and LSTM to improve the accuracy of building energy consumption prediction. TRIZ plays a key role in model design, providing innovative solutions to achieve an effective balance between energy efficiency, cost and comfort by systematically analyzing the contradictions in energy consumption optimization. GWO is used to optimize the parameters of the model to ensure that the model maintains high accuracy under different conditions. The SARIMA model focuses on capturing seasonal trends in the data, while the LSTM model handles short-term and long-term dependencies in the data, further improving the accuracy of the prediction. The main contribution of this research is the development of a robust model that leverages the strengths of TRIZ and advanced deep learning techniques, improving the accuracy of energy consumption predictions. Our experiments demonstrate a significant 15% reduction in prediction error compared to existing models. This innovative approach not only enhances urban energy management but also provides a new framework for optimizing energy use and reducing carbon emissions, contributing to sustainable development.


The Energy Prediction Smart-Meter Dataset: Analysis of Previous Competitions and Beyond

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents the real-world smart-meter dataset and offers an analysis of solutions derived from the Energy Prediction Technical Challenges, focusing primarily on two key competitions: the IEEE Computational Intelligence Society (IEEE-CIS) Technical Challenge on Energy Prediction from Smart Meter data in 2020 (named EP) and its follow-up challenge at the IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems (FUZZ-IEEE) in 2021 (named as XEP). These competitions focus on accurate energy consumption forecasting and the importance of interpretability in understanding the underlying factors. The challenge aims to predict monthly and yearly estimated consumption for households, addressing the accurate billing problem with limited historical smart meter data. The dataset comprises 3,248 smart meters, with varying data availability ranging from a minimum of one month to a year. This paper delves into the challenges, solutions and analysing issues related to the provided real-world smart meter data, developing accurate predictions at the household level, and introducing evaluation criteria for assessing interpretability. Additionally, this paper discusses aspects beyond the competitions: opportunities for energy disaggregation and pattern detection applications at the household level, significance of communicating energy-driven factors for optimised billing, and emphasising the importance of responsible AI and data privacy considerations. These aspects provide insights into the broader implications and potential advancements in energy consumption prediction. Overall, these competitions provide a dataset for residential energy research and serve as a catalyst for exploring accurate forecasting, enhancing interpretability, and driving progress towards the discussion of various aspects such as energy disaggregation, demand response programs or behavioural interventions.


Preliminary studies: Comparing LSTM and BLSTM Deep Neural Networks for Power Consumption Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Electric consumption prediction methods are investigated for many reasons such as decision-making related to energy efficiency as well as for anticipating demand in the energy market dynamics. The objective of the present work is the comparison between two Deep Learning models, namely the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Bi-directional LSTM (BLSTM) for univariate electric consumption Time Series (TS) short-term forecast. The Data Sets (DSs) were selected for their different contexts and scales, aiming the assessment of the models' robustness. Four DSs were used, related to the power consumption of: (a) a household in France; (b) a university building in Santar\'em, Brazil; (c) the T\'etouan city zones, in Morocco; and (c) the Singapore aggregated electric demand. The metrics RMSE, MAE, MAPE and R2 were calculated in a TS cross-validation scheme. The Friedman's test was applied to normalized RMSE (NRMSE) results, showing that BLSTM outperforms LSTM with statistically significant difference (p = 0.0455), corroborating the fact that bidirectional weight updating improves significantly the LSTM performance concerning different scales of electric power consumption.


Fuel consumption prediction -- on cAInvas

#artificialintelligence

Predict the quantity of fuel consumed during drives. The mileage of a vehicle is defined as the average distance traveled on a specified amount of fuel. But distance is not the only factor that affects fuel consumption. Here, we take into account multiple factors like speed, temperatures inside and outside, AC, and other weather conditions like rain or sun besides distance to predict the consumption of different types of fuels during drives. Predicting the fuel consumption given distance and other factors vice versa (predicting distance given fuel) can prove useful in planning trips as well as performing real-time predictions during driving.


Learning to REDUCE: A Reduced Electricity Consumption Prediction Ensemble

AAAI Conferences

Utilities use Demand Response (DR) to balance supply and demand in the electric grid by involving customers in efforts to reduce electricity consumption during peak periods. To implement and adapt DR under dynamically changing conditions of the grid, reliable prediction of reduced consumption is critical. However, despite the wealth of research on electricity consumption prediction and DR being long in practice, the problem of reduced consumption prediction remains largely un-addressed. In this paper, we identify unique computational challenges associated with the prediction of reduced consumption and contrast this to that of normal consumption and DR baseline prediction. We propose a novel ensemble model that leverages different sequences of daily electricity consumption on DR event days as well as contextual attributes for reduced consumption prediction. We demonstrate the success of our model on a large, real-world, high resolution dataset from a university microgrid comprising of over 950 DR events across a diverse set of 32 buildings. Our model achieves an average error of 13.5%, an 8.8% improvement over the baseline. Our work is particularly relevant for buildings where electricity consumption is not tied to strict schedules. Our results and insights should prove useful to the researchers and practitioners working in the sustainable energy domain.


Estimating Reduced Consumption for Dynamic Demand Response

AAAI Conferences

Growing demand is straining our existing electricity generation facilities and requires active participation of the utility and the consumers to achieve energy sustainability. One of the most effective and widely used ways to achieve this goal in the smart grid is demand response (DR), whereby consumers reduce their electricity consumption in response to a request sent from the utility whenever it anticipates a peak in demand. To successfully plan and implement demand response, the utility requires reliable estimate of reduced consumption during DR. This also helps in optimal selection of consumers and curtailment strategies during DR. While much work has been done on predicting normal consumption, reduced consumption prediction is an open problem that is under-studied. In this paper, we introduce and formalize the problem of reduced consumption prediction, and discuss the challenges associated with it. We also describe computational methods that use historical DR data as well as pre-DR conditions to make such predictions. Our experiments are conducted in the real-world setting of a university campus microgrid, and our preliminary results set the foundation for more detailed modeling.